Uncertainty about future global commodity import demand over the year ahead has intensified during the past couple of months. But there are still signs of an upwards trend continuing, despite negative influences in the industrial and agricultural sectors. Seaborne dry bulk trade volumes could evolve solidly through 2013.
A problematical economic background for world trade is underlined by the IMF’s latest (early October) assessment. According to this organization “prospects have deteriorated further and risks increased”. After slowing to 3.3% this year, from 3.8% in 2011, global GDP growth is expected to see only a very modest improvement to 3.6% expansion next year. And that progress depends greatly upon how the European and US economies’ difficulties unfold.
 
COAL
The outlook for global seaborne coal movements in the next twelve months is one encouraging element of the dry bulk trade picture, especially for the steam coal sector. Table 1 shows key Asian importers’ volumes. In many countries a growing coal consumption trend seems set to continue, with increasing dependence on imported supplies.
A few weeks ago Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics predicted that world steam coal trade could increase by 30mt (million tonnes) or 3.4% in 2013, to 909mt, from an estimated 879mt this year. A solid advance of 4.5% in Asian countries is expected to accompany slower growth elsewhere. Given the potential for additional imports into China and India, this forecast may prove conservative.
 
IRON ORE
While it seems arguable that world movements of steel industry raw materials will remain in a positive mode over the year ahead, prospects for some parts are hazy. Clearer indications of how economic developments will affect demand for steel are awaited.
An attempt at predicting how steel usage will evolve in 2013 was made last month by the World Steel Association. Forecasts for consuming countries which are key steel producers, and also importers of iron ore and coking coal,
were not entirely positive. Steel demand in China next year is estimated to grow by 3.1%, accompanied by a 2.4% increase in the European Union. Conversely, Japan’s demand is expected to decline by 2.9%.
 
GRAIN
Signs of positive influences affecting grain trade in the current 2012/13 crop year ending June 2013 are very limited. A detailed breakdown of importing countries’ likely requirements reveals only one or two significantly higher volumes. Morocco’s imports could increase by 2.1mt or 38%, reaching 7.6mt, resulting from much lower domestic production in this year’s harvest. EU imports may increase by 12%, to 15.4mt.
Consequently, world trade in wheat plus corn and other coarse grains during 2012/13 is forecast to decline sharply by 19mt or 7%, to 251mt, based on International Grains Council calculations. Tighter grain supplies available from exporting countries, especially the USA and Black Sea region, and higher international prices, largely explain the expected downturn in volumes.
 
MINOR BULKS
Part of the minor bulk trades sector is comprised of agricultural products and related commodities. Seaborne movements of oilseeds (excluding soyabeans) and meal, rice, sugar plus fertilizers appear to have totalled about 305mt last year, and some signs suggest a 1–2% increase during 2012, despite an expected reduction in sugar trade.
 
BULK CARRIER FLEET
Among bulk carrier size groups, the Capesize (100,000dwt and over) fleet is still growing at a very fast rate, although not as rapidly as seen last year (table 2). Newbuilding deliveries remain massive, possibly rising to a new record high volume in 2012. But a larger scrapping total is expected, and together with other changes could result in the fleet’s growth slowing from 19% last year to 13–14% this year. In 2013 a further, much sharper slowdown could emerge.