Events likely to have a restraining impact on dry bulk trade, over the next twelve months, have been prominent in recent weeks. Yet there are clear signs of rising import demand for raw materials, fuels and agricultural commodities in many countries. Overall seaborne movements of dry bulks can be expected to continue growing moderately through 2012.
Evidence of a pickup in the USA, and expectations of a revival in Japan, provide some useful positive contributions to the outlook for the global economy. But growth in China and India has been slowing. And prospects for the European Union are still highly uncertain, amid statistics suggesting that the region currently is in or near recession, accompanied by forecasts of only very marginal (+0.2%) GDP growth for this year as a whole.
 
GRAIN
Estimates of world soyabeans and meal trade, within the grain (including soya) sector, have been revised downwards. As shown by table 1, some growth is still expected, but it now seems likely to be small. USDA calculations point to a 1% increase during the current 2011/12 crop marketing year ending September, raising the total to 147.2m tonnes.
Robust imports into China are the main feature. Strongly expanding usage of both soyameal in livestock feed, and soyoil in food manufacturing and home cooking, coupled with limited domestic harvests of soyabeans, is reflected in China’s soya imports continuing upwards. Other Asian countries also may need extra beans and meal volumes, but European purchases could decline.
 
IRON ORE
Potential for further growth in global seaborne iron ore trade this year is clear, although the picture is mixed. Much depends on China’s performance as the dominant importer. Another sizeable expansion of Chinese imports is foreseeable, but prospects for other key buyers are not especially bright. The EU’s volume may be flat, while Japan’s imports could be slightly higher.
A new report by Australia’s Bureau of Resources and
Energy Economics gives a more optimistic overview. The BREE forecast suggests that world iron ore trade (including land movements, but mainly seaborne) could grow by 74mt or 7% in 2012, reaching 1,149mt. In addition to a large rise in China, imports into Japan, Europe, South Korea and Taiwan are all expected to strengthen.
 
COAL
Despite environmental concerns, coal trade is still very much a growth sector. Competition from natural gas as a power station fuel has greatly intensified in the past few years. But the other main alternatives to coal for electricity generation, nuclear power and wind , are seen as problematical in many countries due to issues of safety (for nuclear), and reliability (for wind energy).
Consequently, seaborne coal import demand globally remains on an upwards trend, and another sizeable increment in 2012 is foreseeable. Within the dominant steam coal sector, among key buyers, a positive outlook for imports into India is one of the highlights, while additional volumes into China are also envisaged and there are positive signs elsewhere in Asian countries.
 
MINOR BULKS
Steel products comprise a large portion of the minor dry bulks category. Worldwide seaborne trade in finished and semi-finished steel products is estimated to have increased by over 6% last year, reaching around 280mt. In 2012 activity in the main construction and manufacturing markets in many steel importing countries may not support such a large rise.
 
BULK CARRIER FLEET
The world bulk carrier fleet’s growth is expected to remain rapid this year, while decelerating. The Panamax (60–99,999dwt) size group may be an exception. Figures shown in table 2 suggest that this fleet’s expansion in 2012 could prove slightly faster, at 15%. Newbuilding deliveries seem set to sharply exceed last year’s high volume, accompanied by extra scrapping.