Forecasts of world seaborne dry bulk trade in 2013 still point to solid growth. Commodity import demand in numerous countries seems set to increase, including sizeable additional volumes in the iron ore and coal sectors, which together comprise well over half of overall dry bulk movements.

One encouraging aspect recently has been an improving outlook for global economic activity over the next twelve months. The implication is strengthening output in many industries importing dry bulks, but improvement is unlikely to be uniform. Europe may remain firmly in recession. The latest (end February) European Commission economic report predicts GDP growth of only a very marginal 0.1% within the EU this year, following last year’s 0.3% decline.

IRON ORE

World seaborne iron ore trade could grow by between 4% and 5% in 2013, reaching an estimated total of over 1,170mt (million tonnes), as shown in table 1. However, expansion depends heavily upon the continuing robust performance of China, which comprises two-thirds of the global total. Among other countries, prospects for additional volumes are limited.

Japan and the European Union, formerly the dominant iron ore importers, are still major market influences, comprising about one-fifth of overall trade. A slight rise in Japan’s volume this year from last year’s 131mt is envisaged, resulting from more activity in steel using industries and higher steel production. The outlook for Europe’s steel output by contrast remains bleak, suggesting that ore imports may remain below 100mt.

COAL

About a quarter of world seaborne coal trade consists of coking coal for steel industry use. Growth in this sector, and also in the much larger steam coal category where import demand from power stations is the greatest influence, seems likely during 2013. There is potential for the overall global trade total to increase by 5%, raising the annual volume to 1140mt or more.

Asia is the main focus for higher coal imports, particularly

India and China. In the past two years European countries also have been significant contributors to the strong upwards world trend, but some positive factors in that region are unlikely to continue indefinitely. China and India together apparently imported over 380mt in 2012, about one-third of global coal trade, and both countries could see additions in the twelve months ahead.

GRAIN

Prospects for grain trade are more difficult to assess because crop production is affected by unpredictable weather patterns. As a result, global grain trade forecasts for 2013 are highly tentative. Assuming that weakness in the first half will be followed by some revival in the second half, this year’s global trade total (including soyabeans) may be similar to last year’s estimated 323mt.

Calculations based on crop years show a decrease of about 4% in global wheat and coarse grains trade during the current 2012/13 year ending mid-2013. Lower imports into the Middle East area and some African countries are features. By contrast, soyabeans movements seem likely to increase, assisted by China’s rising imports, providing a partial offset for weakness elsewhere.

MINOR BULKS

The large and varied minor bulk trades sector comprises about one third of the global seaborne dry bulk trade total. Industrial bulks related to manufacturing and construction are the largest part. In this sub-category, which includes steel products and forest products, import demand could grow by around 3% this year, supported by reviving economic activity in several regions.

BULK CARRIER FLEET

As shown by the figures in table 2, the world bulk carrier fleet is set to grow rapidly again in 2013, by about 7%, raising the end-year total to over 720m dwt. This growth rate represents a further slowdown, following very fast expansion seen previously, assisted by sharply lower newbuilding deliveries amid continued reduction of world shipyard orderbooks.