Signs of growth in global dry bulk commodity trade are still clearly visible, but more doubts have emerged about prospects over the remainder of 2012 and into next year. Among these concerns, prospects for China’s import demand, a huge element of the world total, are less certain. Ongoing financial problems and economic weakness within Europe are also overshadowing the picture.
The latest (end-May) update by the OECD suggests that “global economic conditions are now improving moderately” although the recovery remains slow and fragile. Within the group of advanced economies (mainly USA, EU, Japan and Korea) GDP growth is forecast to decelerate further, averaging only 1.6% this year, before slightly strengthening to 2.2% in 2013.
 
IRON ORE
Continued iron ore trade expansion during the current year still seems likely. However, optimism is largely based on expectations of higher imports into China, as shown in table 1. There are no firm indications of substantial extra volumes in other key importing countries.
126mt in 2011, a 16% rise, the total may grow by another 10–15% this year, according to some calculations, raising India to fourth place among importers. Although domestic coal output is massive, it is not growing quickly enough to satisfy expanding usage, and higher-grade foreign supplies are often preferred.
 
GRAIN
Initial forecasts of world grain movements in crop year 2012/13 starting next month suggest a flat total. The International Grains Council’s first detailed prediction shows an almost unchanged 265mt volume for wheat and coarse grains trade, following a very strong 9% estimated increase in the 2011/12 year now ending.
Early estimates of grain trade are often revised greatly as domestic harvest results in importing countries are clarified. The current year’s outlook started with expectations of little change, eventually becoming more positive when abundant feedwheat supplies encouraged many importers to raise purchases. This summer’s harvests in northern hemisphere importing countries, which cannot be estimated reliably yet, will have a large impact on 2012/13 trade.
In the first four months of 2012, China’s iron ore imports totalled 244.9mt (million tonnes), a 7% increase compared with the same months of last year. Several forecasts point to a similar percentage growth rate for the entire current year. The positive outlook assumes that changes in steel production, iron ore stocks and output from domestic iron ore mines will remain supportive overall. How much impact the    over the next twelve months, amid extra demand from.
 
MINOR BULKS
A large part of the minor bulk trades sector is comprised of forest products, including logs, sawnwoods and woodchips. Trade in this wide range of items seems to have grown by 4–5% last year, totalling about 180mt. Growth may continue
slowing Chinese economy will have remains unclear.
 
COAL
Higher coal imports into a number of Asian and various other countries are foreseeable this year, resulting in quite strong growth of global seaborne coal trade. The most favourable prospects for large increases appear to be in India, China and Japan.
Also, additional volumes into South Korea, Taiwan and perhaps Europe as well could be seen.
India’s imports of steam and coking coal have become a much greater focus of attention. After reaching an estimated
construction and manufacturing industries in Japan, China and elsewhere.
 
BULK CARRIER FLEET
Among bulk carrier size groups experiencing decelerating but still very fast growth, this year, is the Handymax 40–59,999dwt group. Following a 16% expansion in 2011, to 126.8m dwt (2,475 ships), the current year’s advance may slacken to about 11%, as shown by table 2. Lower newbuilding deliveries, accompanied by sharply higher scrapping are envisaged. However, both key influences are very difficult to forecast accurately.