During recent weeks there have been further indications of expanding activity in dry bulk commodity trades. Key industries dependent on imported supplies of raw materials, including steel production, power generation and aluminium smelting are likely to need extra volumes, in many countries. And in some areas there are signs of additional requirements for cereals and oilseeds.
Although doubts have intensified about how strong global economic growth will prove over the remainder of this year and into 2012, most signs point to a fairly satisfactory outcome. Of particular significance for dry bulk trade, China’s economic outlook is broadly favourable according to the World Bank Beijing Office’s latest assessment. GDP in China is forecast to increase by 9.3% in 2011, compared with 10.3% last year.
 
IRON ORE
Imports of iron ore by most buyers are expected to continue growing, as shown in table 1. However, there is uncertainty about Japan’s 2011 total, which was originally set to increase moderately. Because of disruption caused by the earthquake in March this year, predictions have become more difficult, and there is a possibility that the annual quantity may not rise.
Iron ore imports into China within the past few months, and steel industry developments, still suggest resumed growth in ore purchases after last year’s slight reduction. Chinese imports in the January–April 2011 period totalled 230mt (million tonnes), a 9% increase from the first four months of last year. But steel demand in China seems to be slackening, while production of iron ore from domestic mines is rising.
 
COAL
Expanding steel output from blast furnace steel mills in many countries also implies higher coking coal consumption and imports. Based on calculations by Abares, world trade in metallurgical coal (including land movements, but mostly seaborne) could grow by 10mt or 4% this year, reaching 264mt. Global steam coal trade is also set to expand.
Among the main coking coal importers, higher volumes into Europe, Brazil, Japan, South Korea and India may be seen in 2011. Since this forecast was prepared, an increase in Japan has become less certain. China’s coking coal imports are a relatively small proportion of consumption and could remain almost unchanged, although these are likely to grow in the years ahead.
 
GRAIN
Forecasts of world trade in wheat and coarse grains during the new 2011/12 crop year beginning July indicate only a slight increase. But the outlook may change. Extremely dry weather across northern Europe in the past two months implies a possibility of much lower domestic crop yields, and potential for substantially higher European imports of grain over the next twelve months.
Conversely, short-term prospects for soya trade have deteriorated, although an increase is still expected. The latest US Dept of Agriculture figures show global soyabeans and meal trade increasing by 8% in the marketing year ending September 2011, to 150.7mt. This total has been revised downwards because China’s imports, estimated at 54.8mt, are now lower than expected earlier.
 
MINOR BULKS
Forest products form a large part of the minor bulks sector and this trade — including logs, sawnwoods, and woodchips - apparently totalled about 170mt last year. Increasing demand from construction and manufacturing industries in many countries during 2011 could add perhaps 5% to the total, which could be further boosted by Japan’s post- earthquake reconstruction work.
 
BULK CARRIER FLEET
Rapid growth in the world bulk carrier fleet as a whole this year includes the Handymax size group. But Handymax deadweight capacity expansion is likely to decelerate to about 12% in 2011, from last year’s 18% expansion, as shown in table 2. Lower newbuilding deliveries probably will be accompanied by higher scrapping, although the forecasts for these elements are very tentative.