Evidence to support a view of continued growth in global dry bulk trade through 2012 is not difficult to find. Yet much greater uncertainty about the outlook has emerged recently. There are larger doubts about industrial commodity import demand in many areas, especially in Europe and other advanced countries. Meanwhile, prospects for imports of agricultural commodities seem modest.
Some slightly better signs of recovery in the US economy have been reported, while China’s economic growth rate, despite a further slowing, remains robust. The storm clouds are still clearly visible, however, exacerbated by the crisis in the European sovereign debt market (which may be at least partly resolved by the latest stabilization package). But an overall deceleration of economic activity around the world is apparently evolving.
 
COAL
One of the commodity sectors in which positive elements remain prominent is coal, especially steam coal. Overall global seaborne coal movements could grow by 4–5% this year, and a further sizeable increase in 2012 seems likely. Rising demand from Asian importers is a key factor.
As shown by table 1, imports of steam coal by the main Asian buyers (including Japan) may increase quite sharply by about 5% in the current year. A recent estimate by Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics puts the increase for the entire Asian region at 4%, raising the total to 552mt (million tonnes), followed by a larger 7% increase to 589mt next year. India’s strongly growing steam coal requirements are a major factor.
 
IRON ORE
In mid October a reputable published forecast of global steel demand in 2012 showed growth slowing only moderately after brisk expansion. This view implies fairly well supported steel production in many countries which import iron ore and other raw materials. But recent signs of faltering global economic activity suggest that this outlook is becoming less plausible.
Updated World Steel Association calculations show world
demand for steel rising by 5.4% next year, a moderate loss of momentum after the current year’s estimated 6.5% growth. However, within the overall performance, Europe is expected to decelerate sharply, from a 7% increase in 2011 to only a 2.5% advance over the next twelve months. China’s steel demand could slacken from 7.5% expansion this year, to a 6% rate.
 
GRAIN
Compared with a forecast published one month earlier, the latest (end October) International Grains Council prediction of grain trade, in the current 2011/12 crop year ending June 2012, is noticeably more positive. A flat picture was previously envisaged. But now, a 7mt or 2.8% rise in global wheat and coarse grains movements, to just over 250mt, is foreseen. If achieved, this will be a marked improvement on the previous year’s anaemic 1% rise.
What has prompted this sizeable revision? Chiefly, more clarification of the impact of additional export availability in Russia and neighbouring countries. Evidently competitively- priced supplies, especially feedwheat and milling wheat, from Black Sea exporters are stimulating import demand in numerous areas.
 
MINOR BULKS
A large part of the minor bulk trades sector is comprised of agricultural products and related commodities. The sub- group includes oilseeds and meal, rice, sugar and fertilizers, seaborne movements of which totalled an estimated 280mt in 2010. An increase of around 3% is foreseeable this year, restrained by an expected reduction in sugar trade.
 
BULK CARRIER FLEET
Despite greatly increased scrapping, the world bulk carrier fleet is still growing strongly. The Capesize segment emphasizes these features. Newbuilding Capesize deliveries in 2011 are likely to exceed the previous volume, as shown in table 2. However, higher demolition sales and reduced tanker conversions could result in the fleet’s deadweight capacity expanding by 14%, a much less rapid rate than seen last year.
 
by Richard Scott, Bulk Shipping Analysis, Tel: +44 (0)12 7722 5784; Fax: +44 (0)12 7722 5784; e-mail: bulkshipan@aol.com