Negative factors affecting some key elements of global dry bulk commodity trade have been prominent recently. But, elsewhere, trade volumes are clearly increasing and the overall picture is one of growth. Uncertainty about China’s import demand in the months ahead is still a feature, although currently a strong trend continues.
During the early months of this year, world economic activity seemed to be regaining momentum solidly. However, progress remains fragile and the World Bank’s latest outlook comments that “since the beginning of May, much of this progress has been called into question by a re- igniting of Euro Area jitters.” Much now depends on how the European debt and banking crisis evolves.
 
GRAIN
After expanding rapidly in the past twelve months, grain trade is expected to flatten in the year ahead. Recent International Grains Council calculations (table 1) show world wheat and coarse grains trade growing by 21.5mt (million tonnes), or 9%, in crop year 2011/12 which has just ended, reaching 264.2mt. An almost unchanged 264.9mt is forecast in the current 2012/13 year.
This forecast will remain highly tentative, however, until harvests in northern hemisphere importing countries have been completed. The size and quality of crops to be harvested over the summer period, in Europe and China, will be a large influence on import requirements. These crops are dependent on unpredictable weather in the final weeks of the growing season and during the harvesting operation.
 
IRON ORE
Further growth in the steel industry raw materials trades is predicted in 2012, continuing into next year. Iron ore trade could see a sizeable increase, although it probably will largely reflect additional imports by China. Other importers are likely to contribute only a limited extra volume and, in the European Union, an actual reduction may be seen.
The latest forecast by Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics suggests that global iron ore trade could
grow by 58mt (5%) in 2012, reaching 1,133mt. This estimate includes a marginal increase in the EU’s imports, which now seems unlikely to occur. Higher imports into Japan and South Korea are envisaged, as well as an 8% increase in China’s volume.
 
COAL
Prospects for global seaborne coal trade still appear positive, with estimates for a range of importing countries in Asia showing higher volumes this year. Despite intensifying competition from other energy sources, especially natural gas and renewables (mostly wind power), an upwards trend in coal trade looks sustainable.
Potential for rising imports into China is clear, but predicting year-to-year changes is difficult. Although large as a part of world trade, these amounts are only a small proportion of China’s coal market, which is mainly supplied by domestic mines. In the first five months of 2012 a strong imports expansion was seen, apparently raising the total by 26% to almost 72mt.
 
MINOR BULKS
Phosphate rock trade was previously classified as one of the major dry bulk trades, but this label is no longer accurate. It has not been on a rising trend, and annual volumes are currently lower than seen during the mid-2000s and relatively minor. Nevertheless, it remains a significant element of the fertilizer trades. Last year seaborne movements reportedly totalled just over 25mt, a 10% increase, which extended the rebound from a large fall two years earlier.
 
BULK CARRIER FLEET
The Handysize (10–39,999dwt) fleet is likely to grow much less rapidly than other bulk carrier size groups during 2012. Both newbuilding deliveries and scrapping this year may be similar to volumes seen in the previous twelve months (as shown in table 2), based on tentative indications. Consequently the Handysize fleet may grow by about 4%, from an 84m dwt total at the end of 2011.