Some favourable signs are still visible among key influences shaping global dry bulk commodity trade. But, over recent weeks, adverse factors or, at least, greater uncertainty about seaborne trade growth became more prominent. A deteriorating outlook for grain and soya movements has added to doubts about prospects for industrial bulks.
The OECD’s early-September assessment of the economic scene emphasised a weaker background for trade. Among the OECD group of advanced countries, the loss of momentum in economic activity (GDP) is expected to persist during the second half of 2012. Continuing recession within the eurozone and a subdued performance in Japan are features. Clearer indications of China’s slowdown have emerged as well.
 
GRAIN
Severely curtailed supplies of grain and soya and higher international prices are expected to cause a sharp reduction in this trade during the next twelve months. The latest IGC forecast for global wheat and coarse grains trade in crop year 2012/13 starting July shows a very large 20mt (million tonnes) or 8% decline compared with the previous year, to an estimated 249.0m. Lower US and Black Sea exports are envisaged.
By contrast, soyabeans and meal movements could still increase (marginally), despite greatly reduced US export availability. Recent US Dept of Agriculture figures for marketing year 2012/13 beginning October (table 1) suggest 1% growth in global soya trade, to 149.8m. Rising imports into China, up again by 3% to 59.6m, probably will be the main support.
 
IRON ORE
In the iron ore sector China is currently seen as the principal positive factor as well, although uncertainty has intensified in recent weeks about whether the trend can be sustained. In the first 8 months of 2012, Chinese imports were 40m or 9% higher, at 487.3m.
Growth of steel production in China during the same period was only about 2%. This relatively small increase has
been accompanied by distinct signs of slowing domestic demand for steel, and reports of high stocks. A renewed emphasis on export markets appears to be under way, as a means of supporting output. Many major new infrastructure projects (consuming steel) have been announced, but the impact in the immediate future may be limited.
 
COAL
Expectations of growth in coal trade remain largely intact, amid rising import demand in Asia, especially for steam coal. India’s potential as a rapidly growing importer was emphasized at the end of July when extensive power blackouts caused massive disruption. Steam coal imports into India more then trebled in the past five years, reaching over 90m in 2011, and could continue upwards.
Despite economic recession and a downturn in steel production and coking coal consumption, European coal import demand seems to be well supported this year. Negative changes in the contribution of other fuel sources, and reduced domestic coal mining apparently are underpinning foreign coal purchases.
 
MINOR BULKS
A large proportion of the minor bulks sector is comprised of steel products trade. Worldwide seaborne movements are estimated to have reached around 290m last year, and further growth may be seen in 2012. An expansionary influence in the first seven months of the current year was US imports, a key market, totalling 18.3m, up by 17% from last year’s same period.
 
BULK CARRIER FLEET
The global bulk carrier fleet continues to expand very rapidly despite much higher scrapping of old ships. One of the fastest growing elements is the Panamax (60–99,999dwt) fleet.
Calculations shown in table 2 suggest that this sector could see growth exceeding 15% during 2012, faster than last year’s strong increase. Much higher newbuilding deliveries this year may be only partly offset by higher demolition sales.