Imports of dry bulk commodities into numerous countries around the world are still on an upwards trend. Positive signs are clearly visible among industrial commodity movements, while stronger agricultural products trade is also a noticeable feature. Restraining influences are prominent, but solid overall growth continues.
Recession or near-recession in Europe, and a slowdown in China, persist. Yet the global economic outlook is not completely negative. The USA appears to be picking up modestly, while Japan may benefit from a bounce-back after last year’s severe disruptions. A recent (mid-April) IMF report suggested that global GDP growth, after slowing further to 3.5% in 2012, from 3.9% in the previous twelve months, could slightly accelerate to 4.1% in 2013.
 
COAL
Prospects for seaborne coal trade point to expansion this year and further ahead. Steam coal imports into Asia are a particular focus of attention, because of clear indications that several large buyers will need extra quantities for new and existing powers stations. Table 1 below shows estimated higher volumes in China, India, and other countries during 2012.
A very positive forecast was published recently by Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics. The calculations suggest that global coal trade (steam and coking coal, including land movements, but mostly seaborne) could increase by 6% this year. From 1,107mt (million tonnes) in 2011, the total is expected to rise to 1,169mt, mainly reflecting higher Asian imports.
 
IRON ORE
Contrasting steel industry performances among the main importers of raw materials have been evident in the past few months. Pig iron production figures for the 2012 first quarter showed China’s output rising by 5% compared with the same period of last year, to 165.2mt. More significantly, this volume was also 14% higher than seen in last year’s depressed final quarter.
South Korea has maintained a very strong 11mt quarterly
pig iron production volume. But in other key iron ore importing areas, output has weakened. In the European Union, January–March 2012 production was 4% below the same quarter a year ago, at 23.3mt. Japan’s volume, similarly, was 4% down at 20.0mt. These outcomes have been reflected in iron ore import demand.
 
GRAIN
The outlook for grain trade from mid-2012 onwards is still hazy. Summer harvests in northern hemisphere importing countries will have a big impact on seaborne trade movements. Predictions for these harvests are not yet reliable, because unpredictable weather through the remainder of the crop growing season and during harvesting will determine the final result.
Estimates of global wheat and coarse grains trade, in the current crop year ending June, show a notable increase of 7%, the largest rise for several years. According to the International Grains Council’s latest (end-April) update, after marginal 1% growth in 2010/11, the total could expand from 243mt, to 260mt in 2011/12. Higher imports into China, the Middle East area, sub-Saharan Africa and Mexico are key influences, accompanied by growth elsewhere.
 
MINOR BULKS
Agricultural products and related commodities form a large part of the minor bulks trade sector. Seaborne movements of oilseeds (excluding soyabeans) and meal, rice, sugar and fertilizers are estimated at about 300mt last year, a 4% increase. Tentative signs point to slower overall growth in 2012, partly reflecting weaker sugar import demand.
BULK CARRIER FLEET
Fleet expansion in the Capesize (100,000dwt and over) bulk carrier sector is expected to slacken this year, but probably will remain very rapid. As shown in table 2, newbuilding deliveries are likely to decrease, while scrapping could be higher. After three years when an average 20% annual fleet enlargement was seen, including 18% growth in 2011, the current year’s advance may decelerate to about 12%.