Signs of positive influences supporting commodity import demand around the world are still visible. But doubts are mounting about the extent of potential for growth in raw materials and other industrial bulk trades, over the remainder of this year and into 2012. Also, while there are indications of agricultural trade strengthening, these are fairly limited.
Although economic activity in China and other emerging economies remains robust, albeit slowing, GDP growth in the advanced countries group (mainly Europe, USA and Japan) has decelerated sharply. The latest OECD update concludes that economic recovery in this group “appears to have come close to a halt” in the second quarter of this year, and may stay weak in the 2011 second half.
 
GRAIN
Within the grain (including soya) sector, a further solid advance in soyabeans and meal movements is foreseeable. As shown by table 1 below, US Dept of Agriculture figures suggest that global trade volume increased by an estimated 7mt (million tonnes) or 5% in marketing year 2010/11 ending September 2011, to 147mt. Over the next twelve months ending September 2012, a further 7mt rise to 154mt is expected.
Positive expectations for China’s demand are one of the key features. Amid rapidly rising consumption of soyameal and oil, Chinese soya imports could be about 9% higher in 2011/12, at 56.8mt, after growing by about 4% in the past marketing period. Elsewhere, additional imports into Asian and Middle East countries seem likely.
 
IRON ORE
Imports into China continue to be the principal focus of attention in the iron ore trades, reflecting their dominant role. During the first 8 months of this year, the country’s buyers received 448mt, a 43mt or 11% increase compared with last year’s same period.
This strong performance, coupled with indications of further support for steel and raw materials consumption in the immediate future, points to a substantial annual rise in
China’s iron ore imports in 2011 as a whole. If the 56mt average monthly volume is maintained in the next few months, the current year’s total could reach 670mt. After last year’s reduced 619 mt, a resumed upwards trend, possibly continuing into 2012, now seems to be under way.
 
COAL
Seaborne coal trade is set to expand again in the current year. Among key importers, favourable indications are clear, but uncertainty about some of the largest buyers’ requirements is prominent. In particular, volumes needed by Japan and China over the remainder of 2011 and into next year are not easy to predict accurately.
Japan’s coal imports this year may fall below the 185mt volume recorded in the previous twelve months. Analysis of the trend has been complicated by the March 2011 natural disasters, which heavily disrupted coal using industries. Since then steel production has picked up, benefiting coking coal, but steam coal use by power stations and other users has not been greatly boosted.
 
MINOR BULKS
Global trade in steel products is the biggest component of seaborne minor bulk commodity trade, and forecasts point to sustained growth.
Annual movements last year recovered sharply from the preceding downturn, to about 260mt, and could grow by 5–6% in 2011 according to some estimates. However, recent reports of faltering economic growth in many countries imply possible adverse changes affecting steel demand, and imports, in the period ahead.
 
BULK CARRIER FLEET
Among the various bulk carrier fleet segments, the Panamax fleet is still growing rapidly (see table 2). However, expansion in 2011 may decelerate slightly. Newbuilding deliveries are expected to increase greatly in the current year as a whole, perhaps by about one-third, but much higher scrapping could reduce Panamax deadweight capacity growth to about 11%, compared with last year’s 13% rise.