Signs point to further growth in global seaborne dry bulk trade during 2012. Despite uncertainty about how economic activity in many countries will evolve, the outlook for trade in commodities related to industrial production remains positive. Prospects for agricultural commodities trade, especially grain, are fairly bright. But the overall advance may not match last year’s increase.
Doubts about the world economy’s future progress were emphasized by the European Commission’s end-January report. This assessment concluded that the eurozone is likely to see a return to recession in the current year, with GDP declining by 0.3%. However, recent indications suggest a pick-up in the USA is now under way. Also, while China’s economy seems set to continue slowing, growth could stay strong enough to benefit dry bulk imports.
 
IRON ORE
Some elements of the steel industry background may not be supportive for raw materials trade in 2012. Growth expectations are heavily dependent upon a continuing upwards trend in China’s import needs, which currently seem quite favourable. World seaborne iron ore trade is forecast to expand by about 4–5% to reach 1,123mt (million tonnes) this year, as shown by table 1.
Amid a downturn in Europe’s economy, domestic steel output could decrease in the current year. Moreover, there are no signs yet of a strong recovery in Japan’s production after last year’s decline, caused by the natural disasters. But China’s steel demand and production is widely expected to increase, and its iron ore imports could grow robustly over the next twelve months.
 
COAL
After last year’s reduction, the coking coal sector, comprising about one quarter of overall seaborne coal trade, appears to be set for a revival. The much larger steam coal sector also could benefit from extra import demand in a number of countries. Consequently the global seaborne coal trade total in 2012 is estimated to increase by just over 4%, reaching 1,040mt.
Output trends in power stations, steel mills and other
industries relying on foreign coal supplies point to further support for coal trade. Asian countries are the most promising area in the twelve months ahead. Rising volumes into India may be accompanied by larger purchases in China. Japan’s requirements seem likely to reflect further emphasis on coal-fired electricity generation.
 
GRAIN
As this year begins, grain trade prospects look positive. There is uncertainty about the second half, because key northern hemisphere importers’ domestic harvests in the summer are not yet predictable.
The outcome of these will have a major impact on foreign purchases. Provisionally, global seaborne grain (including soyabeans) trade in 2012 may increase by about 2–3%, to 311mt.
Recent forecasts on a crop year basis, for the year ending mid-2012, have become more encouraging. Imports into the Middle East area are evolving strongly, while volumes into sub-Saharan Africa, Mexico and some other countries could rise. China’s relatively small wheat and coarse grains imports are predicted to double, while its much larger soyabean imports also increase.
 
MINOR BULKS
A substantial part of the extensive minor bulk trade sector is comprised of commodities related to industrial usage in manufacturing and construction, such as bauxite/alumina, steel products, forest products and cement. Extra import demand for these dry bulks is foreseeable in a number of areas during 2012, possibly resulting in minor bulk seaborne trade growth of about 3%.
 
BULK CARRIER FLEET
During the next twelve months, rapid expansion of bulk carrier fleet capacity is set to remain a prominent feature, as shown by calculations in table 2. The world fleet’s growth rate in 2012 could be around 10%, boosting the total to 673m dwt by end-year. Newbuilding deliveries are expected to continue at a very high level, with less than one-third offset by massive scrapping.