by Richard Scott, Bulk Shipping Analysis.
Global seaborne dry bulk trade probably will continue
expanding during 2011. Import demand for many
commodities related to industrial output is likely to
be bolstered by economic growth trends. Agricultural
commodity movements may strengthen as well. But the
overall advance is not expected to match last year’s sharp
rebound from the preceding exceptionally weak period.
Renewed uncertainty about the world economic outlook
has emerged in recent weeks, however. Higher prices for oil
and other primary raw materials, and foodstuffs, is
exacerbating inflationary pressures. Policy measures to
control the adverse impact are predictable in a large number
of countries. These could result in the global economy
growing less robustly than previously envisaged, over the
next twelve months.
IRON OREThe positive steel industry trend seen last year is widely
expected to persist through 2011, although at a slower
growth rate. Consequently global seaborne iron ore trade
could expand by 5%, reaching about 1,050mt (million
tonnes), as shown by table 1 below. Additional imports into
China, Japan, South Korea and European Union countries may
contribute to this outcome.
Signs point to China’s iron ore import demand resuming
its upwards trend after a marginal decrease in 2010. In
Japan and Europe, reviving domestic industrial activity, and
support from export markets, provides solid foundations for
further increases in steel output and raw materials
consumption. Expanding steelmaking capacity in South Korea
is another factor potentially benefiting iron ore trade.
COALFollowing a remarkably strong performance last year,
expansion of coal trade looks set to continue during the next
twelve months. Higher import demand in both steam and
coking sectors seems likely. The extra volumes are forecast
to result in global seaborne coal trade reaching 1,015mt in
2011, a 6% increase, although that rate is less than half the
pace seen in the previous period.
Rising output in steel mills, power stations and other
industries depending on foreign supplies of coal implies
further growth in trade movements. The outlook for steam
coal import demand this year seem especially favourable,
amid indications of additional requirements in a number of
Asian countries, including India and China. Some potential for
growth in Japan and European countries is also visible.
GRAINProspects for grain and soya trade during 2011 as a whole
are not particularly positive. This view may change over the
months ahead. Mid-2011 summer domestic harvests in
northern hemisphere importing countries will have a big
influence on trade movements. These crops can be only
tentatively forecast at present, because weather conditions
over the remainder of the growing season are unpredictable.
Currently a 3% increase in global seaborne grain and soya
trade, to 308mt is a possible result for this year. Among
signs of growth, at least up to mid-2011, larger wheat and
coarse grains imports are predicted in Europe, Russia and
North Africa. Soyabeans imports into China also are expected
to continue growing, and there is a possibility that more
wheat and corn may be needed.
MINOR BULKSIndustrial commodities, such as bauxite/alumina, steel
products, forest products and cement, comprise the largest
part of the extensive minor bulks trade sector. Many of
these elements could benefit from strengthening
manufacturing and construction activity in a range of
countries over the year ahead. Overall minor bulk seaborne
trade is forecast to grow by about 4%.
BULK CARRIER FLEETRapid expansion of bulk carrier fleet capacity is set to remain
a prominent feature during the next twelve months, as
shown by the calculations in table 2. The fleet’s growth rate
in 2011 is likely to be very strong at over 12%, raising the
fleet to 601m dwt, although well below last year’s 17% rise.
Despite the much greater scrapping envisaged this year, high
newbuilding deliveries will ensure that massive additional
capacity emerges.