Strengthening influences have been buoying commodity import demand elements in some countries and could remain advantag eous. Consequently world seaborne dry bulk trade in 2024 as a whole looks set to continue growing.
 
Economic activity in the main regions or countries affecting global import demand for cargoes carried by bulk carriers is providing support. But the impetus derived from ongoing trends has not been especially notable. Signs of gross domestic product growth in the second and third quarters of 2024 seem to be consistent with the International Monetary Fund’s latest estimate of no acceleration in world GDP growth this year, compared with the 3.3% rate achieved in 2023.
 
GRAIN & SOYA
A prospective mixed pattern of grain trade in the new 2024/25 marketing year now beginning is revealed by tentative US Department of Agriculture calculations. After a strong performance in the previous twelve months, when 6% growth was seen, a downturn seems likely. In a forecast published a few weeks ago, wheat plus corn and other coarse grains trade is estimated to fall by about 4%, to 432mt (million tonnes).
 
Figures included in table 1 show forecasts for the main importing regions, combining separate USDA data for wheat (July to June year) with coarse grains (October to September year). In 2024/25 grain imports into east and south-east Asia, comprising over a third of the world total, are expected to decline by 9mt or 6% to 146mt. Lower imports into China could be seen. Reduced imports into Europe and the Middle East are also weaker elements envisaged, but volumes into Africa could rise.
 
COAL
Despite projections indicating a longer term downwards trend potentially beginning soon, global coal trade currently remains well supported. Although prospects for an import demand boost in 2024 seem limited, recent forecasts suggest that the total could be equal to or slightly higher than last year’s volume.
 
Nevertheless there are components for which short term prospects are unclear, especially for China’s massive purchases (over a quarter of world trade). In the 2024 first seven months China imported 296mt, including land movements but mostly seaborne, a 13% increase from last year’s same period. This performance follows a 62% annual rise in 2023. Signs suggest that this remarkable upwards trend may not continue much longer, and a cutback could begin emerging in the months ahead.
 
IRON ORE
Global seaborne iron ore trade is apparently expanding again this year. The trend breakdown is uneven, however. Several of the largest importers are experiencing negative influences, amid lower steel production, leading to estimates of annual ore import reductions for some of these during 2024.
 
Crude steel production in the European Union during the 2024 first seven months was 1% higher than seen in last year’s same period, at 78mt, according to World Steel Association statistics. Elsewhere volumes were lower. China’s output was down by 2% at 614mt, while in Japan and South Korea reductions of 3% to 50mt and 6% to 37mt respectively were recorded. These decreases have affected iron ore usage and imports, although in China ore stockpiling at ports and other influences contributed to imports rising.
 
MINOR BULKS
Seaborne trade trends in the huge and diversified minor bulks segment, comprising an estimated two-fifths of the world dry bulk commodity trade total, are often hard to monitor and assess precisely. Indications emerging in recent months suggest that the category is still growing, assisted by growing bauxite, steel products and forest products movements.
 
BULK CARRIER FLEET
Capacity enlargement in the world fleet of bulk carriers in 2024 could be similar to that seen last year at 29 million deadweight tonnes, as shown by table 2. Newbuilding deliveries and scrapping, the main influences, are expected to be stable, resulting in fleet growth of about 3%.