Dry bulk commodity trade prospects during 2012 have become less promising amid signs of a slowing world economy. Yet import demand for industrial raw materials, fuels and other products still seems set to continue growing quite solidly in many countries. Within the grain and agricultural commodities sector also, there are clear indications of expanding volumes.
Updated (end January) forecasts by the International Monetary Fund underline the softening background for trade movements. Although the USA is picking up, and Japan’s economy is rebounding after being hit by last year’s natural disasters, the EU is heading downwards. Consequently, average GDP growth in the advanced countries in 2012 may slow to only a marginal 1.2%. China’s pace could slacken as well, while remaining healthy, at an estimated 8.2%.
 
COAL
Among positive elements, the outlook for coal trade during the year ahead appears moderately encouraging, especially in the steam coal sector. Recent calculations by Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics put global steam coal trade (including land movements, but mostly seaborne) at 852mt (million tonnes) in 2012, a 35mt or 4% increase. Imports into Japan and several Asian countries are expected to rise.
In the much smaller coking coal sector some negative changes were evident last year, as shown by table 1 below. There are signs of a revival, however, and BREE’s calculations point to a large 23mt (8%) total trade expansion this year, to 295mt, after a decrease in the past twelve months. Other forecasters are less optimistic, although a sizeable increase does seem likely.
 
IRON ORE
Figures for steel industry output in the final quarter of 2011 show that pig iron production at blast furnace mills flattened or declined in many countries, compared with preceding quarters. Volumes in Japan, the EU, and China were all lower. South Korea maintained the much higher level reached earlier, while Taiwan’s output was stable.
Despite the recent weakening picture, higher production during 2012 may be achievable in China, Japan and other raw materials importing countries. Some forecasts suggest that global seaborne iron ore could continue growing as a result, perhaps quite briskly if there is another large rise in China’s imports, which last year resumed growth at an 11% rate, reaching 686.7mt.
 
GRAIN
Global trade in wheat plus corn and other coarse grains could be over 4% higher in the 2011/12 crop year ending June, according to the latest International Grains Council estimates, reaching 253mt. Higher imports into Asia (including a jump in China’s volume, to 7.6mt), the Middle East area, sub- Saharan Africa and Mexico are the main positive features.
One area where favourable signs are not evident is Europe. EU grain imports are expected to decline by 2.7mt (20%) in the current crop year, to 10.6mt. Wheat purchases could increase sharply as a result of tight feedwheat supplies. Conversely, corn imports are set to decrease steeply, reflecting an improved EU domestic harvest last summer, and therefore the overall total is set to fall.
 
MINOR BULKS
Aluminium production growth in the main raw materials importing countries benefited bauxite/alumina trade last year. Primary aluminium output was up by 6% in North America and West Europe, and by over 10% in China. Although further growth is foreseeable in 2012, reports of possible further smelter cutbacks in Europe are not encouraging.
 
BULK CARRIER FLEET
The world bulk carrier fleet is still being expanded greatly by huge deliveries of newbuildings. In 2011 the new deliveries total was over one-fifth higher at an estimated 97m dwt, as shown in table 2. This very large volume resulted in the fleet growing by 14% by year-end despite much higher scrapping. Another high newbuildings total is likely in the twelve months ahead.