Dry bulk trade has rebounded strongly over the past
year, after the setback seen in the previous twelve
months. Some estimates suggest that growth in
2010 may have been around 10%. Although it could prove
hard to repeat this remarkably high rate of expansion during
2011, signs of extra import demand for many commodities
are evident, pointing to a continuing recovery.
Prospects for global economic activity still seem generally
positive, implying potential for increased trade. Forecasts
published by the United Nations last month showed the
developed countries group (mainly USA, Europe and Japan)
averaging 2.3% GDP growth in 2010, followed by a slightly
slower 1.9% in 2011. Developing countries (including China
and India) are forecast to grow by 7.1% and 6.0% in the
same two years.
 
GRAIN
Among grain importers, European countries and Russia are
likely to provide most of the support within the current
2010/11 crop year ending June 2011. Recent International
Grains Council estimates, summarized in table 1, show global
wheat and coarse grains trade increasing by a minimal 1.6mt
(million tonnes) (under 1%), reaching 241.2mt.
Domestic crop shortfalls in some importing countries
probably will result in more foreign purchases. Russia’s
volume could be up from almost nil to about 4mt, while the
EU total could rise by 2.9mt (38%), to 10.5mt. However,
these and other minor additions contrast with expectations
of downturns elsewhere. In particular, Middle East imports
may be 4.2mt (10%) lower, at 38.1mt. Reduced quantities
into several Asian countries also may be seen.
 
IRON ORE
Further growth in world seaborne iron ore trade over the
next twelve months is foreseeable. Increased steel
production, in a range of countries dependent on imported
raw materials, seems achievable. But much depends on
whether Chinese steel mills step up their iron ore import
purchases, after a subdued performance during 2010.
Calculations published recently by Abares indicate that
global iron ore trade (including land movements, but mostly
seaborne) was 93mt or 10% higher last year, at 1,041mt.
Lower imports into China, estimated down by 3% at 608mt,
contrasted with higher volumes into Europe, Japan, South
Korea and Taiwan. For 2011 an overall 57mt (5%) global rise
to 1098mt is predicted, reflecting growth in all the main
importing countries, including a 3% rise in China.
 
COAL
Over the past twelve months, coal trade appears to have
grown more quickly than iron ore trade. Coking coal
movements rebounded vigorously from a fall in the previous
year. Meanwhile, steam coal shipments, which have
maintained a continuous upwards trend in recent years, grew
at a faster rate. A substantial overall coal trade advance
during 2011 seems likely as well.
Japan and several Asian importers greatly boosted their
foreign coal purchases in 2010. In Japan and South Korea,
totals may have risen by about 13–14%, while China’s
volume probably was about 30% higher, accompanied by a
large percentage increase in India. Potential for further
growth among this group and other countries within the
twelve months ahead is evident, amid rising production of
steel and electricity.
 
MINOR BULKS
The outlook for the minor bulks trade sector is positive.
Movements of many commodities could benefit from
strengthening of industrial and construction activity around
the world. Extra requirements for finished and semi-finished
steel products, cement, bauxite/alumina, forest products and
many other inputs is likely to result.
 
Compared with very rapid growth in other bulk carrier size
groups, Handysize (10,000–39,999dwt) fleet expansion was
relatively modest last year, at about 8%, as shown by
table 2. Handysize newbuilding deliveries were well over
50% higher, while scrapping diminished greatly. Over the
next twelve months, deliveries probably will increase, but
scrapping could pick up strongly, reducing the fleet growth
rate.