An upwards trend in global dry bulk trade seems set
to continue over the remainder of 2010 and
possibly through next year. Additional demand for
the products of many industries consuming and importing
commodities can be expected to result in further trade
growth. Extra volumes of agricultural commodities may be
seen also.
Indicators of economic activity in a wide range of
countries are looking more encouraging, with positive
implications for bulk trade. China’s economy is performing
strongly, and the latest World Bank report forecasts GDP
growth at 9.5% in 2010, almost one percentage point faster
than last year’s increase. However, among economists there
is some anxiety about a possible slowing later this year or in
2011.
IRON OREMonthly iron ore import figures for China, which now
accounts for over two-thirds of global seaborne iron ore
trade, are scrutinized very closely for clues to the future
trend. In the first quarter of 2010, Chinese mills imported
155mt (million tonnes) of iron ore, which was 18% above
the same period a year earlier, but below each of the two
preceding quarters.
Most analysts still expect imports into China during this
year as a whole to greatly exceed last year’s 628mt volume.
This continued expansion is being accompanied by increasing
iron ore imports into Europe, Japan, South Korea and other
countries, amid recovering steel output after a very severe
downturn in 2009. Table 1 shows forecasts of imports
growth this year.
COALCoking coal trade also is a beneficiary of the steel industry’s
revival. Global movements could increase sharply during
2010. The biggest importer by far is Japan, comprising
around one-third of world seaborne coking coal import
demand, at 65.6mt last year. Japanese steel production has
rebounded from depressed volumes a year ago, sharply
raising coal consumption.
Higher imports of coking coal into Europe, South Korea,
India and China this year are expected to boost the total.
Until 2009 China’s purchases from foreign suppliers were
small, at 5–7mt annually, and these were a relatively minor
feature of global coking coal trade. Last year’s massive
400% increase to 34.5mt has focused much more attention
on Chinese requirements, but some estimates suggest that
the 2010 total will be lower.
GRAINProspects for grain trade in the next twelve months still
suggest a flat picture, contrasting with other bulk commodity
trades where signs of additional import demand are
widespread. A tentative early forecast of wheat and coarse
grains trade in crop year 2010/11 starting July, prepared
recently by the International Grains Council, points to a
minimal increase of 2mt, to 232mt.
However, the outlook could change. In the 2009/10 crop
year now ending, a sharp trade reduction has been seen.
This fall resulted mainly from an unusual coincidence of
improved or adequate domestic grain harvests last summer
in most of the main northern hemisphere importing
countries. While there are currently no signs of shortfalls in
these countries’ summer 2010 harvests, weather conditions
in the weeks ahead will greatly affect the outcome.
MINOR BULKSAmong minor bulk trades, forest products is a large element,
comprising a wide variety of cargoes from logs and
sawnwoods, to woodchips and newsprint. After a sharp
decline in world seaborne forest products trade volume last
year, possibly to below 160mt, a recovery seems likely
during 2010, as activity in manufacturing industries in the
importing countries strengthens.
BULK CARRIER FLEETAnother period of very rapid expansion in the Handymax
(40–59,999dwt) bulk carrier fleet is forecast, as shown by
table 2. Newbuilding deliveries in 2010 are likely to be much
higher than last year’s total. Although scrapping may
increase as well, fleet growth could accelerate again from
11% in 2009, to around 14%.