Annual figures for many elements of global seaborne dry bulk trade are likely to show solid increases in 2012 as a whole. But recently there were signs suggesting that much of the growth occurred in the first six months of this year. Prospects for the second half and into next year have become more uncertain, emphasized by some adverse influences emerging.
Concerns about economic activity in numerous countries intensified during the past few weeks. Preliminary GDP data confirmed that the eurozone economy is effectively in recession (this year’s second quarter was down by –0.2% from the previous quarter) and there are no indications of when a firm recovery may begin. Other countries, including China, mostly appear to be struggling to maintain a healthy trend. Currently, optimism for 2013 is restrained.
 
IRON ORE
A sizeable increase in world seaborne iron ore trade still seems achievable this year, as shown by the forecast in table 1. Additional imports of 43mt (million tonnes) could raise the 2012 total by 4%, to 1,112mt. However, this outcome is entirely dependent on China’s continued robust expansion, because there is only limited potential for growth elsewhere and Europe’s volume may fall sharply.
One positive influence recently has been the pick up in Japan’s steel output, contributing to an annual rise, while South Korea’s production also may be slightly above last year’s level. In the European Union by contrast, a 4-5% production decline is foreseeable. Although China’s steel output is currently averaging 2% higher, indications for this year’s remaining months are mixed, and a downturn is possible.
 
COAL
Coking coal movements, comprising one quarter of overall seaborne coal trade, evidently are rebounding from last year’s sharp reduction. The much larger steam coal sector also continues to expand. Both sectors are less dependent on China as a growth component than iron ore trade. Overall global seaborne coal trade is forecast to grow by 55mt (over 5%) in 2012, reaching 1,068mt.
A large proportion of the extra import demand originates in Asia. In addition to China’s higher volumes, a strong upwards trend in India’s foreign purchases remains a prominent feature. Among other countries also, positive factors are visible. In many areas, expansion of coal-fired electricity generation persists as a key contributor to the growing energy supply mix.
 
GRAIN
On a calendar year basis, world seaborne grain trade (including wheat, corn and other coarse grains, plus soyabeans) could increase moderately by 3% in 2012 as a whole, reaching an estimated 319mt. However, growth probably was concentrated in the first half, corresponding to the 2011/12 crop year’s second half. The following six months looks set to be much weaker.
After a robust January–June 2012 period, negative factors have emerged. There have been no signs of severe domestic crop shortfalls in the summer harvests of northern hemisphere importing countries. Also, several exporters, especially the USA and Black Sea suppliers, will have reduced volumes available because of poor harvests. Consequently import demand may diminish.
 
MINOR BULKS
Commodities related to manufacturing and construction, such as steel products, forest products, bauxite/alumina and cement comprise a large part of the extensive minor bulk trade sector. Agricultural commodities comprise the remainder. Overall seaborne trade growth of 3% could be seen this year, assuming that the global economy avoids a deterioration in the months ahead.
 
BULK CARRIER FLEET
Expansion of the world bulk carrier fleet continues apace. Calculations suggest that during 2012 a very rapid 12% increase is likely, raising capacity to 688m dwt by year-end, as shown in table 2. Newbuilding deliveries appear set to rise, exceeding 100m dwt, and probably less than one-third of this total will be offset by a strong upturn in scrapping, to over 30m dwt.