The latest forecast of Australia’s 2009-2010 impending winter crop harvest puts total production
at around 36mt (million tonnes) of grains, oilseeds and pulses, some 1mt more than in the
first forecast issued in June this year (and reported in July’s DCI) and 2mt more
than in the 2008–2009 harvest completed at the start of this year. This puts forecast Australian winter crop output some 10% higher than the average of the last ten years, a period that has seen two drought-crippled seasons that
yielded barely more than 17mt and two record seasons that saw output of more than
40mt.
This latest production forecast is contained in the Australian Crop Report of September
2009 published by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE).
The Bureau reports that dry seasonal conditions have resulted in reductions in forecast
production in both New South Wales and Queensland, but increases in expected output in
Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, brought about by good seasonal rainfall,
have more than made up for this.
With the expected additional increases in output, export availability is now forecast at
21.75mt, around 1.1mt more than from last season’s harvest, with wheat and barley
accounting for the increase.
ABARE now expects the area planted to wheat in 2009–2010 to have increased
marginally, except in Victoria where it has fallen by some 2%, but maintains its earlier
forecast that yields overall will improve this year, resulting in a slight increase in total wheat
production to around 22.7mt. While output in NSW is expected to fall because of below
average winter rainfall and above average temperatures, wheat crops in Victoria and South
Australia are expected to increase significantly after continued good rains, with the fiveyear
rolling average, and SA’s harvest to increase by 50% to reach 3.46mt. The Bureau has
also increased its forecast of the WA wheat crop as a result of above average rainfall across
the northern grains belt in June and July, and now expects the state’s output to reach
8.74mt, only marginally less than last season.
As for barley, Australia’s second largest grain crop, the Bureau has also increased its
production forecast and now expects the harvest to increase by around 1.8mt to 7.9mt,
with Victoria almost doubling production to 1.67mt and SA increasing output by 30% to
2.2mt as better rains bring higher yields. Production of canola and pulses (lupins, field peas
and chickpeas) at 1.72mt and 1.36mt respectively, is expected to remain much as in the last
harvest.
With these more optimistic forecasts it comes as no surprise that ABARE has again
raised its forecasted export availability to 21.75mt, around 0.1mt more than in its June
forecast and around 1.1mt more than its latest estimate of exports from last season. Wheat
continues to be Australia’s major export grain, and ABARE forecasts that export availability
will reach 15.46mt, just under 1mt more than last season and the highest level since
2005–2006. As for barley, availability is now expected to be around 4.3mt, slightly above
last season but down a little on ABARE’s previous forecast as the Bureau now sees a slight
increase in domestic use as stock feed.
Good recent rains have buoyed farmers’ spirits, particularly in the southern growing
regions, a feeling shared by Melbourne’s gardeners as rainfall in the city has begun to
reverse the decade-long decline in its water storages and holds out the hope that water
restrictions this summer will not be made even tighter. As the rain lashes the windows of
the writer’s office it seems as though, for the first time in many years, this month’s rainfall
will at least equal the long term average and bring the prospect of good harvests across
much of the country.
 
Michael Dunn