Food has moved onto the centre stage of global concern. As the world has been rocked by food price inflation for the second time in three years, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who this year is heading the Group of 20, wants food to be accorded top policy priority. President Sarkozy also recommends strong action against the speculators who he thinks are largely responsible for food price spikes. Most experts, however, believe that speculators might have fished in troubled waters, but fundamentally the world food system remains in crisis. The challenge is to find a solution to stagnation in farm productivity so that a growing number of world population does not remain undernourished.
A point of debate now is how much is food inflation — like wheat prices doubling in eight months — responsible for fanning unrest in the Middle East. The region depends on imports for more than half of its wheat requirements. The world was witness to women in Egypt and Tunisia screaming and complaining about high food prices on TV screen. That food was a major contributor to the unrest is not in doubt. In 2008 nearly two dozen countries were visited by protests and riots in the wake of skyrocketing of prices of basic food items. High food prices leading to political unrest in the Middle East and north Africa have been responsible for rising cost of oil. Dearer oil then pushes up the cost of nitrogenous fertilizers which, in turn, makes farm operation so much more expensive. This fuels food price inflation. A vicious circle lately in operation.  Affairs, the world food production will have to be doubled by 2050. The world population by then will rise 38% to 9.5bn from 6.9bn now, with gains largely happening in poorer countries. No fewer than a billion people are already hungry and they are not fit to do even modest manual work. It is feared that if global efforts, in the form of a combination of public and private initiatives to raise food production, do not rise up to the challenge, then by 2050 yet another 2bn people will join the ranks of the hungry. The Economist says in an insightful survey that the most important cure for food crisis is yield improvement. “Over the next 40 years, yields need to rise by around 15% a year to feed mankind adequately. Maize, which has had by far the most genetic research, is the only crop whose yield is growing by more than that. If genetic selection can be extended to wheat, rice and soyabeans, that should go a long way to feeding the world by 2050,” says the report.
But first what are all the factors that are found to be responsible for sharp rises in food prices from wheat to sugar and from rice to corn. The world may not have seen the last of food inflation. If drought is going to lay waste to Chinese wheat crops, then its arrival in the world market for imports could trigger another round of price spike. What here needs to be remembered is that China and India, the world’s two most populous countries, have largely been able to satisfy their food requirements from internal supply. China and Brazil are among the very few countries where food productivity continues to record encouraging growth. Unfortunately, productivity growth has plateaued in India; time now for a second green revolution, the first one of the 1960s did wonders for wheat and rice in the following two decades. Last year was particularly difficult for the world farm sector with floods and drought playing havoc with many countries.
For example, Indian food production in 2009/10, when the country experienced the weakest monsoon since 1972, fell to 218mt (million tonnes) from a record 234.4mt in the previous year. In a bid to contain food price rises, New Delhi clamped down on exports of rice and
wheat. This, however, falls into a global pattern. It has now become common for countries to ban or restrict exports of food items in times of contraction of supply from within sparing no thoughts as to how the move will hurt the importing nations. New Delhi admits that “depending on domestic availability, the government allows exports and imports of food items, especially wheat,riceandpulses.” Indian foodgrains production in the crop year ending June 2011 is now set to better the previous record by climbing to 235.88mt, including an all-time high wheat output of 84.3mt, defying drought and heavy and unseasonal rains in some parts of the country. Wheat production in the current year compares with 80.8mt in 2009/10. Buffer stocks of wheat and rice at nearly ten times of food security benchmark and good production in 2010/11 should encourage India to export foodgrains once again.
India’s agriculture minister Sharad Pawar says the country now has to take a “serious call on wheat exports” in view of record harvest which raises the issue of grains storage. The easing of food inflation of late will make it easier for the government to resume exports. Industry official Om Prakash Dhanuka says,“the government has to have a flexible approach to export-import of food items depending on their domestic supply and price behaviour. In the case of sugar, after crop failure induced imports for two consecutive seasons (October to September) we are coming back as an exporter during 2010/11. The government has allowed export of 500,000 tonnes in the first tranche. But I think India will be in a position to export up to 1.5mt of sugar this season.”
In a short supply situation, countries tend to import as much as they can for stock building and as a shield against popular unrest. The dollar value being what it is, imports have remained an attractive proposition. The Economist argues that efforts to raise farm output will be richly aided by way of “removing trade barriers and cutting subsidies. Lowering tariff walls round rich countries would increase poor farmers’ exports. An agreement to limit trade bans might make exporters think twice before disruptingworldmarkets.” But,sofar,thedevelopedcountries have been resolute in giving protection to the farm sector mostly through subsidies, open and hidden and trade barriers.
The challenge for policymakers to feed a population of 9.5bn in 2050 is made harder by changes in dietary habits of people living in cities of developing countries. The dietary shift for the urban population is from cereals to meat, vegetables and fruits. But in order to produce 1kg of beef, as much as 13kg of corn is required. Cattle are particularly known for their inefficiency at converting grain calories into consumable meat calories.
Similarly, nearly 5kg of corn is needed to produce 1kg of poultry meat. The experience of China and India where urbanization is spreading fast and wealth is also spilling into the countryside, thanks to inclusive growth programmes and pockets of farm prosperity, is a pointer to dietary shift to happen in other developing countries as they start clocking good GDP growth rates.
For reasons explained earlier, in country after country the farm sector has become an important public concern. A long time in the past, the world could indulge in the luxury of stepping up food production by way of commissioning uncultivable land. Worldwide crops are grown on 1.5bn hectares. The World Bank has said in a report that a little over half a billion hectares, good for cultivation and sparsely populated, are available. But it will not be easy to use all the World Bank identified land for farming. The Economist says,“a lot of it either should be left alone for environmental reasons
or would be too expensive to farm.” However,“in eleven countries less than half the usable land is farmed. These countries could presumably boost food output by taking in some new land.” In most places, evictions trigger protests from civil society.
Doubts remain as to the exact availability of unexploited land good for farming. At the same time, there remain swathes of semi-arid land in China, India and several other countries which could be turned good for cultivation. Wisely, however, policymakers are approaching the issue of stepping up food production to feed a growing population on the assumption that not much unfarmed land will be available to grow crops. Take the case of India; land under foodgrains (winter and summer crops) is stagnating at about 123m hectares. In the case of cereals, land is constant at 100m hectares and for pulses at 23m hectares. Another scarce input is water. Taking a cue from Israel, many countries have set out to cut wastage of water in farmland by using drip-feed irrigation. The system works wonders for small farmlands.
India has irrigation coverage for 40% of its farmland. A government study says the potential of its rainfed areas remains to be fully utilized. Development of rainfed farm land is, therefore, given ‘top priority’. Much land globally is wasted as topsoil gets washed away by rain waters. To the extent this is checked, not only will there be no loss of land but the water saved in the process could then be used for tending crops. Prudent use of water, fertilizers and pesticides and bridging the gap between the best and worst producing zones will help the cause of improving supply of food. New Delhi admits that “an estimated 40% of the fruit and vegetable production in the country goes waste due to lack of storage, cold chain and transport infrastructure.” What is true for India should also be the case for other developing countries. Enormous amounts of food are also wasted in developed countries from food stores to restaurants to homes. If checked, that will boost food supply. A breakthrough in farm productivity calls for massive public and private investment in research for development of new strains of seeds. Fortunately, more and more governments are getting awakened to the challenge.